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Gyeongnam FC vs Asan Mugunghwa — K League 2 2026

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
3/16/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 3Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gyeongnam FC38%
×Draw27%
Asan Mugunghwa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
1.30
Asan Mugunghwa
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 149 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.34
Asan Mugunghwa
1.11

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.40
Asan Mugunghwa
1.26

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Asan Mugunghwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
65%
Gyeongnam FC or Asan Mugunghwa
73%
Draw or Asan Mugunghwa
62%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
17%
Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
73%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
37%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
14%
Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
71%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
36%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
52%
Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Asan Mugunghwa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.11 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
38%
level
27%
Asan Mugunghwa scores more
35%

Gyeongnam FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongnam FC vs Asan Mugunghwa

Asan Mugunghwa beat Gyeongnam FC 2-1 in K League 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Changwon Football Center in Changwon.