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Asan Mugunghwa vs Gyeongnam FC — K League 2 2026

Asan Mugunghwa
Asan Mugunghwa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
9/1/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 29Yishunsin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Asan Mugunghwa42%
×Draw27%
Gyeongnam FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asan Mugunghwa
1.38
Gyeongnam FC
1.17

Asan Mugunghwa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 117 away

creates per match

Asan Mugunghwa
1.31
Gyeongnam FC
1.20

allows per match

Asan Mugunghwa
1.15
Gyeongnam FC
1.44

finishing

Asan Mugunghwa+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asan Mugunghwa ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Asan Mugunghwa or draw
68%
Asan Mugunghwa or Gyeongnam FC
73%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
58%

Winning margin

Asan Mugunghwa wins by 2+
19%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Asan Mugunghwa 1+ goals
75%
Asan Mugunghwa 2+ goals
40%
Asan Mugunghwa 3+ goals
16%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
69%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
33%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Asan Mugunghwa (draw refunded)
57%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asan Mugunghwa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 153 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asan Mugunghwa attack 1.31 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Asan Mugunghwa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Asan Mugunghwa scores more
42%
level
27%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
32%

Asan Mugunghwa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Asan Mugunghwa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Asan Mugunghwa 3–0 Gyeongnam FC

Asan Mugunghwa beat Gyeongnam FC 3-0 in K League 2 on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Yishunsin Stadium in Asan.