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Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
3/23/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundGyeongju Sports Complex artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gyeongju HNP43%
×Draw24%
Paju Citizen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju HNP
1.67
Paju Citizen
1.42

Gyeongju HNP creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gyeongju HNP
2.00
Paju Citizen
2.33

allows per match

Gyeongju HNP
0.50
Paju Citizen
1.33

finishing

Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par
Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju HNP ↓

Paju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gyeongju HNP or draw
67%
Gyeongju HNP or Paju Citizen
76%
Draw or Paju Citizen
57%

Winning margin

Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+
22%
Paju Citizen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals
81%
Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals
50%
Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals
23%
Paju Citizen 1+ goals
76%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
41%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)
57%
Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju HNP at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju HNP attack 2.00 + Paju Citizen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Paju Citizen attack 2.33 + Gyeongju HNP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gyeongju HNP scores more
43%
level
24%
Paju Citizen scores more
33%

Gyeongju HNP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gyeongju HNP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongju HNP vs Paju Citizen

Gyeongju HNP beat Paju Citizen 4-1 in FA Cup on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial in Gyeongju.