Gyeongju HNP 1–1 Geoje Citizen: Result & Stats

Gyeongju HNP

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Geoje Citizen

3/30/2023

FA Cup · 2nd RoundGyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gyeongju HNP65%

×Draw19%

Geoje Citizen17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongju HNPExpected goals in this matchGeoje Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.13

Gyeongju HNP

2.38

Geoje Citizen

1.13

Gyeongju HNP creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.75

0.50

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Gyeongju HNP

2.00

Geoje Citizen

1.75

allows per match

Gyeongju HNP

0.50

Geoje Citizen

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju HNP ↓

Geoje Citizen →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gyeongju HNP or draw

83%

Gyeongju HNP or Geoje Citizen

81%

Draw or Geoje Citizen

35%

Winning margin

Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+

42%

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+

Team goals

Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals

91%

Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals

68%

Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals

42%

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals

68%

Geoje Citizen 2+ goals

31%

Geoje Citizen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)

79%

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju HNP at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju HNP attack 2.00 + Geoje Citizen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Geoje Citizen attack 1.75 + Gyeongju HNP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gyeongju HNP scores more

65%

level

19%

Geoje Citizen scores more

17%

Gyeongju HNP at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gyeongju HNP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff