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Gyeongju HNP vs Ansan Greeners — FA Cup 2019

Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ansan Greeners
Ansan Greeners
3/23/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundGyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gyeongju HNP58%
×Draw22%
Ansan Greeners20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju HNP
1.88
Ansan Greeners
1.00

Gyeongju HNP creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gyeongju HNP
2.00
Ansan Greeners
1.50

allows per match

Gyeongju HNP
0.50
Ansan Greeners
1.75

finishing

Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par
Ansan Greeners+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju HNP ↓

Ansan Greeners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gyeongju HNP or draw
80%
Gyeongju HNP or Ansan Greeners
78%
Draw or Ansan Greeners
42%

Winning margin

Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+
34%
Ansan Greeners wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals
85%
Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals
56%
Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals
29%
Ansan Greeners 1+ goals
63%
Ansan Greeners 2+ goals
26%
Ansan Greeners 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)
74%
Ansan Greeners (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju HNP at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Ansan Greeners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju HNP attack 2.00 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ansan Greeners attack 1.50 + Gyeongju HNP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gyeongju HNP scores more
58%
level
22%
Ansan Greeners scores more
20%

Gyeongju HNP at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gyeongju HNP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Gyeongju HNP 0–1 Ansan Greeners

Ansan Greeners beat Gyeongju HNP 1-0 in FA Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gyeongju Citizen Stadium in Gyeongju.