Gyeongju Citizen 1–1 Jeonju: Result & Stats

Gyeongju Citizen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonju

8/29/2020

K3 League · Round 14Gyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gyeongju Citizen31%

×Draw29%

Jeonju40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongju CitizenExpected goals in this matchJeonju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.21

Gyeongju Citizen

1.02

Jeonju

1.21

Jeonju creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

0.60

creates per match

0.82

1.60

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Gyeongju Citizen

0.60

Jeonju

0.82

allows per match

Gyeongju Citizen

1.60

Jeonju

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju Citizen ↓

Jeonju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gyeongju Citizen or draw

60%

Gyeongju Citizen or Jeonju

71%

Draw or Jeonju

69%

Winning margin

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

12%

Jeonju wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

64%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

27%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

8%

Jeonju 1+ goals

70%

Jeonju 2+ goals

34%

Jeonju 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

43%

Jeonju (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju Citizen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Jeonju away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.60 + Jeonju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.02

Jeonju attack 0.82 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

31%

level

29%

Jeonju scores more

40%

Jeonju at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jeonju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff