Gyeongju Citizen 1–1 Cheongju: Result & Stats

Gyeongju Citizen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cheongju

7/25/2020

K3 League · Round 10Gyeongju Citizen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gyeongju Citizen28%

×Draw29%

Cheongju44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongju CitizenExpected goals in this matchCheongju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.25

Gyeongju Citizen

0.93

Cheongju

1.25

Cheongju creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 40 away

0.60

creates per match

0.90

1.60

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Gyeongju Citizen

0.60

Cheongju

0.90

allows per match

Gyeongju Citizen

1.60

Cheongju

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Cheongju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju Citizen ↓

Cheongju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gyeongju Citizen or draw

56%

Gyeongju Citizen or Cheongju

71%

Draw or Cheongju

72%

Winning margin

Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+

10%

Cheongju wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals

61%

Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals

24%

Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals

7%

Cheongju 1+ goals

71%

Cheongju 2+ goals

36%

Cheongju 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)

39%

Cheongju (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju Citizen at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Cheongju away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.60 + Cheongju defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Cheongju attack 0.90 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gyeongju Citizen scores more

28%

level

29%

Cheongju scores more

44%

Cheongju at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cheongju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff