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Gwelup Croatia vs Kalamunda City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Gwelup Croatia
Gwelup Croatia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
7/19/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 17Croatian Sporting Complex A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gwelup Croatia41%
×Draw24%
Kalamunda City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwelup Croatia
1.57
Kalamunda City
1.41

Gwelup Croatia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gwelup Croatia
1.97
Kalamunda City
0.82

allows per match

Gwelup Croatia
2.00
Kalamunda City
1.18

finishing

Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par
Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwelup Croatia ↓

Kalamunda City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwelup Croatia or draw
66%
Gwelup Croatia or Kalamunda City
76%
Draw or Kalamunda City
59%

Winning margin

Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+
21%
Kalamunda City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals
79%
Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals
46%
Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals
21%
Kalamunda City 1+ goals
76%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
41%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)
55%
Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwelup Croatia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.97 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Gwelup Croatia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gwelup Croatia scores more
41%
level
24%
Kalamunda City scores more
34%

Gwelup Croatia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gwelup Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Gwelup Croatia 3–2 Kalamunda City

Gwelup Croatia beat Kalamunda City 3-2 in Western Australia State League 1 on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Croatian Sporting Complex A in Gwelup.