Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gwelup Croatia vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Gwelup Croatia
Gwelup Croatia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
7/6/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 14Croatian Sporting Complex A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gwelup Croatia54%
×Draw18%
ECU Joondalup27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwelup Croatia
2.81
ECU Joondalup
2.00

Gwelup Croatia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gwelup Croatia
1.97
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Gwelup Croatia
2.00
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwelup Croatia ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Gwelup Croatia or draw
73%
Gwelup Croatia or ECU Joondalup
82%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
46%

Winning margin

Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+
35%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals
94%
Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals
76%
Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals
52%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
86%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
59%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)
66%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwelup Croatia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.97 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.81

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Gwelup Croatia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gwelup Croatia scores more
54%
level
18%
ECU Joondalup scores more
27%

Gwelup Croatia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gwelup Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Gwelup Croatia 2–2 ECU Joondalup

Gwelup Croatia and ECU Joondalup drew 2-2 in Western Australia State League 1 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Croatian Sporting Complex A in Gwelup.