Gwarek Zabrze U18 2–1 SMS Łódź U18: Result & Stats

Gwarek Zabrze U18

FT

2 – 1

SMS Łódź U18

10/25/2020

Central Youth League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gwarek Zabrze U1833%

×Draw21%

SMS Łódź U1845%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Zabrze U18Expected goals in this matchSMS Łódź U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.01

Gwarek Zabrze U18

1.70

SMS Łódź U18

2.01

SMS Łódź U18 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.37

creates per match

1.50

2.53

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18

1.37

SMS Łódź U18

1.50

allows per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18

2.53

SMS Łódź U18

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par

SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Zabrze U18 ↓

SMS Łódź U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or draw

55%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or SMS Łódź U18

79%

Draw or SMS Łódź U18

67%

Winning margin

Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+

16%

SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals

82%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals

51%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals

24%

SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals

87%

SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals

59%

SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)

42%

SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.53 · 30 matches

SMS Łódź U18 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 1.37 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.70

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.50 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more

33%

level

21%

SMS Łódź U18 scores more

45%

SMS Łódź U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SMS Łódź U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff