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Gwarek Zabrze U18 vs Hutnik Kraków U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Gwarek Zabrze U18
Gwarek Zabrze U18
FT
2 – 1
Hutnik Kraków U18
Hutnik Kraków U18
9/27/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gwarek Zabrze U1857%
×Draw19%
Hutnik Kraków U1824%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.55
Hutnik Kraków U18
1.63

Gwarek Zabrze U18 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.37
Hutnik Kraków U18
0.73

allows per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.53
Hutnik Kraków U18
3.73

finishing

Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Zabrze U18 ↓

Hutnik Kraków U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or draw
76%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 or Hutnik Kraków U18
81%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków U18
43%

Winning margin

Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
37%
Hutnik Kraków U18 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals
92%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals
72%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals
46%
Hutnik Kraków U18 1+ goals
80%
Hutnik Kraków U18 2+ goals
48%
Hutnik Kraków U18 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
70%
Hutnik Kraków U18 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.53 · 30 matches

Hutnik Kraków U18 away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 1.37 + Hutnik Kraków U18 defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.55

Hutnik Kraków U18 attack 0.73 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more
57%
level
19%
Hutnik Kraków U18 scores more
24%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gwarek Zabrze U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Zabrze U18 vs Hutnik Kraków U18

Gwarek Zabrze U18 beat Hutnik Kraków U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on September 27, 2020.