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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Stilon Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
M. Rakowiecki 27'
E. Drozdowicz 64', 7'
3/4/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry39%
×Draw25%
Stilon Gorzów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.50
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Stilon Gorzów
1.45

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Stilon Gorzów
1.51

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Stilon Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
63%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Stilon Gorzów
75%
Draw or Stilon Gorzów
61%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
19%
Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
78%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
44%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
19%
Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
77%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
42%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
51%
Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Stilon Gorzów away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.45 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
39%
level
25%
Stilon Gorzów scores more
37%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
E. Drozdowicz
27'
M. Rakowiecki
64'
E. Drozdowicz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Stilon Gorzów

Stilon Gorzów beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 4, 2023.

Goals: E. Drozdowicz (7', 64'), M. Rakowiecki (27').

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.