Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gwardia Koszalin vs Polonia Środa — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
FT
0 – 4
Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
10/17/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin29%
×Draw23%
Polonia Środa47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwardia Koszalin
1.33
Polonia Środa
1.75

Polonia Środa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.12
Polonia Środa
1.74

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.76
Polonia Środa
1.54

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par
Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Polonia Środa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw
53%
Gwardia Koszalin or Polonia Środa
77%
Draw or Polonia Środa
71%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
13%
Polonia Środa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
74%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
38%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
15%
Polonia Środa 1+ goals
83%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
52%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
38%
Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more
29%
level
23%
Polonia Środa scores more
47%

Polonia Środa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Gwardia Koszalin 0–4 Polonia Środa

Polonia Środa beat Gwardia Koszalin 4-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa in Koszalin.