Gwardia Koszalin 3–1 Gryf Wejherowo: Result & Stats

Gwardia Koszalin

FT

3 – 1

Gryf Wejherowo

5/22/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin40%

×Draw24%

Gryf Wejherowo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwardia KoszalinExpected goals in this matchGryf Wejherowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.47

Gwardia Koszalin

1.56

Gryf Wejherowo

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

1.18

1.76

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin

1.12

Gryf Wejherowo

1.18

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin

1.76

Gryf Wejherowo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw

64%

Gwardia Koszalin or Gryf Wejherowo

76%

Draw or Gryf Wejherowo

60%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+

20%

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals

79%

Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals

46%

Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals

21%

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

77%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

43%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)

53%

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gryf Wejherowo attack 1.18 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more

40%

level

24%

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

36%

Gwardia Koszalin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff