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Gwardia Koszalin vs Bałtyk Gdynia — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
FT
2 – 0
Bałtyk Gdynia
Bałtyk Gdynia
10/31/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin43%
×Draw25%
Bałtyk Gdynia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwardia Koszalin
1.56
Bałtyk Gdynia
1.30

Gwardia Koszalin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.12
Bałtyk Gdynia
0.84

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.76
Bałtyk Gdynia
2.00

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par
Bałtyk Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Bałtyk Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw
68%
Gwardia Koszalin or Bałtyk Gdynia
75%
Draw or Bałtyk Gdynia
57%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
22%
Bałtyk Gdynia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
79%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
46%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
21%
Bałtyk Gdynia 1+ goals
73%
Bałtyk Gdynia 2+ goals
37%
Bałtyk Gdynia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
58%
Bałtyk Gdynia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Bałtyk Gdynia away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Bałtyk Gdynia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bałtyk Gdynia attack 0.84 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more
43%
level
25%
Bałtyk Gdynia scores more
32%

Gwardia Koszalin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Gwardia Koszalin 2–0 Bałtyk Gdynia

Gwardia Koszalin beat Bałtyk Gdynia 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa in Koszalin.