Gwangju FC 1–0 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Gwangju FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

J. Asani 58'

11/27/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 5Gwangju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gwangju FC67%

×Draw18%

Shanghai Shenhua15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwangju FCExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.08

Gwangju FC

2.46

Shanghai Shenhua

1.08

Gwangju FC creates 128% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

3.25

creates per match

0.67

1.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Gwangju FC

3.25

Shanghai Shenhua

0.67

allows per match

Gwangju FC

1.50

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw

85%

Gwangju FC or Shanghai Shenhua

82%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

33%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

45%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

91%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

70%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

44%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

66%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

29%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

82%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 3.25 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Gwangju FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gwangju FC scores more

67%

level

18%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

15%

Gwangju FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Asani

Gwangju FC · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Wilson Manafá

42'

Cephas Malele

43'

Cephas MaleleCard reviewed

45+2'

Byeon Jun-soo

45+6'

Yool HeoGoal cancelled

57'

J. Asani← Oh Hu-Seong

58'

J. Asani↳ Heo Yool

66'

Wilson Manafá← Yang Zexiang

66'

Xu Haoyang← Gao Tianyi

71'

Jin-ho Kim

74'

Shin Chang-Moo← Lee Hui-Gyun

74'

Lee Kun-Hee← Heo Yool

77'

Xie Pengfei← Wang Haijian

79'

Jeong Ji-Yong← Choi Kyoung-Rok

80'

Jo Seong-Kwon← Lee Min-Gi

81'

Kun-hee Lee

84'

Yu Hanchao← C. Malele

89'

João Carlos Teixeira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GwangjuShanghai

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots6

3Corners1

20Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots6

3On Target2

1Off Target1

4Blocked3

4Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

508Total Passes412

427Accurate Passes333

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2