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Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul — K League 1 2026

Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
6/13/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 18Gwangju Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gwangju FC37%
×Draw27%
FC Seoul36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwangju FC
1.23
FC Seoul
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 156 away

creates per match

Gwangju FC
1.18
FC Seoul
1.20

allows per match

Gwangju FC
1.22
FC Seoul
1.29

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw
64%
Gwangju FC or FC Seoul
73%
Draw or FC Seoul
63%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+
16%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals
71%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
35%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
13%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
70%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
34%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
51%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 99 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.18 + FC Seoul defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Seoul attack 1.20 + Gwangju FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gwangju FC scores more
37%
level
27%
FC Seoul scores more
36%

Gwangju FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Gwangju FC 1–3 FC Seoul

FC Seoul beat Gwangju FC 3-1 in K League 1 on June 13, 2025.

The match was played at Gwangju Football Stadium in Gwangju.