Gwambina 0–0 Polisi Tanzania: Result & Stats

Gwambina

FT

0 – 0

Polisi Tanzania

3/13/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 21Gwambina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwambina42%

×Draw32%

Polisi Tanzania25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GwambinaExpected goals in this matchPolisi Tanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.74

Gwambina

1.05

Polisi Tanzania

0.74

Gwambina creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

0.76

creates per match

0.84

0.65

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Gwambina

0.76

Polisi Tanzania

0.84

allows per match

Gwambina

0.65

Polisi Tanzania

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwambina+0.00on par

Polisi Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwambina ↓

Polisi Tanzania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Gwambina or draw

75%

Gwambina or Polisi Tanzania

68%

Draw or Polisi Tanzania

58%

Winning margin

Gwambina wins by 2+

17%

Polisi Tanzania wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gwambina 1+ goals

65%

Gwambina 2+ goals

28%

Gwambina 3+ goals

9%

Polisi Tanzania 1+ goals

52%

Polisi Tanzania 2+ goals

17%

Polisi Tanzania 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gwambina (draw refunded)

62%

Polisi Tanzania (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwambina at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Polisi Tanzania away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwambina attack 0.76 + Polisi Tanzania defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.05

Polisi Tanzania attack 0.84 + Gwambina defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gwambina scores more

42%

level

32%

Polisi Tanzania scores more

25%

Gwambina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gwambina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff