Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gwambina vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Gwambina
Gwambina
FT
4 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
4/10/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 22Gwambina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwambina43%
×Draw33%
Coastal Union24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwambina
1.02
Coastal Union
0.69

Gwambina creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Gwambina
0.76
Coastal Union
0.72

allows per match

Gwambina
0.65
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Gwambina+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwambina ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Gwambina or draw
76%
Gwambina or Coastal Union
67%
Draw or Coastal Union
57%

Winning margin

Gwambina wins by 2+
17%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gwambina 1+ goals
64%
Gwambina 2+ goals
27%
Gwambina 3+ goals
8%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
50%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
15%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gwambina (draw refunded)
64%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwambina at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwambina attack 0.76 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Coastal Union attack 0.72 + Gwambina defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwambina scores more
43%
level
33%
Coastal Union scores more
24%

Gwambina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gwambina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwambina vs Coastal Union

Gwambina beat Coastal Union 4-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Gwambina Stadium in Misungwi.