GVVV Veenendaal 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam II

GVVV Veenendaal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sparta Rotterdam II

5/25/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 34Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal42%

×Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GVVV VeenendaalExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.65

GVVV Veenendaal

1.82

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.65

GVVV Veenendaal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

1.76

creates per match

1.75

1.55

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.76

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.75

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.55

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw

65%

GVVV Veenendaal or Sparta Rotterdam II

78%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

58%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

23%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

84%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

54%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

27%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

81%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

49%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

54%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.75 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

42%

level

22%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

35%

GVVV Veenendaal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff