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GVVV Veenendaal vs RKAV Volendam — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
B. Burgering 54', 26'
Q. Veenhof 49', 35'
4/15/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 29Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal53%
×Draw21%
RKAV Volendam27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVVV Veenendaal
2.20
RKAV Volendam
1.52

GVVV Veenendaal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal
2.18
RKAV Volendam
1.74

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.29
RKAV Volendam
2.21

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par
RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

RKAV Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw
73%
GVVV Veenendaal or RKAV Volendam
79%
Draw or RKAV Volendam
47%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
32%
RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
89%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
64%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
37%
RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
78%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
45%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
67%
RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 2.18 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more
53%
level
21%
RKAV Volendam scores more
27%

GVVV Veenendaal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
B. Burgering
35'
Q. Veenhof
49'
Q. Veenhof
54'
B. Burgering

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GVVV Veenendaal vs RKAV Volendam

GVVV Veenendaal beat RKAV Volendam 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 15, 2023.

Goals: B. Burgering (26', 54'), Q. Veenhof (35', 49').

The match was played at Sportpark Panhuis in Veenendaal.