GVVV Veenendaal 1–1 Excelsior Maassluis

GVVV Veenendaal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Excelsior Maassluis

10/18/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 10Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal51%

×Draw22%

Excelsior Maassluis27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GVVV VeenendaalExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Maassluis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.35

GVVV Veenendaal

1.92

Excelsior Maassluis

1.35

GVVV Veenendaal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 104 away

1.76

creates per match

1.16

1.55

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.76

Excelsior Maassluis

1.16

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.55

Excelsior Maassluis

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw

73%

GVVV Veenendaal or Excelsior Maassluis

78%

Draw or Excelsior Maassluis

49%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

29%

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

85%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

57%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

30%

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

74%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

39%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

65%

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.92

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

51%

level

22%

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

27%

GVVV Veenendaal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff