GVVV Veenendaal 3–3 Almere City II: Result & Stats

GVVV Veenendaal

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Almere City II

9/21/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 6Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal39%

×Draw23%

Almere City II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GVVV VeenendaalExpected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.71

GVVV Veenendaal

1.73

Almere City II

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 51 away

1.76

creates per match

1.86

1.55

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.76

Almere City II

1.86

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.55

Almere City II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw

62%

GVVV Veenendaal or Almere City II

77%

Draw or Almere City II

61%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

20%

Almere City II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

82%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

52%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

25%

Almere City II 1+ goals

82%

Almere City II 2+ goals

51%

Almere City II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

51%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Almere City II attack 1.86 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

39%

level

23%

Almere City II scores more

38%

GVVV Veenendaal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff