GVV Unitas 4–2 OJC Rosmalen: Result & Stats

GVV Unitas

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

OJC Rosmalen

5/11/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 32Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

GVV Unitas41%

×Draw24%

OJC Rosmalen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GVV UnitasExpected goals in this matchOJC Rosmalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.46

GVV Unitas

1.58

OJC Rosmalen

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 51 away

1.31

creates per match

1.45

1.46

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

GVV Unitas

1.31

OJC Rosmalen

1.45

allows per match

GVV Unitas

1.46

OJC Rosmalen

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

OJC Rosmalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw

65%

GVV Unitas or OJC Rosmalen

76%

Draw or OJC Rosmalen

59%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+

20%

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals

79%

GVV Unitas 2+ goals

47%

GVV Unitas 3+ goals

21%

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

77%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

43%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)

53%

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.58

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GVV Unitas scores more

41%

level

24%

OJC Rosmalen scores more

35%

GVV Unitas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff