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GVV Unitas vs Hoogland — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
3 – 1
Hoogland
Hoogland
9/12/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 4Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

GVV Unitas49%
×Draw23%
Hoogland28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.85
Hoogland
1.36

GVV Unitas creates 36% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 31 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
Hoogland
1.26

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
Hoogland
2.39

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
Hoogland+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

Hoogland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
72%
GVV Unitas or Hoogland
77%
Draw or Hoogland
51%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
27%
Hoogland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
84%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
55%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
28%
Hoogland 1+ goals
74%
Hoogland 2+ goals
39%
Hoogland 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
63%
Hoogland (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Hoogland away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + Hoogland defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hoogland attack 1.26 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
49%
level
23%
Hoogland scores more
28%

GVV Unitas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GVV Unitas vs Hoogland

GVV Unitas beat Hoogland 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.