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GVV Unitas vs EVV — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EVV
EVV
5/8/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 29Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

GVV Unitas41%
×Draw26%
EVV33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.42
EVV
1.25

GVV Unitas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
EVV
1.03

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
EVV
1.53

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
EVV+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

EVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
67%
GVV Unitas or EVV
74%
Draw or EVV
59%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
19%
EVV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
76%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
41%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
17%
EVV 1+ goals
71%
EVV 2+ goals
36%
EVV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
55%
EVV (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

EVV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + EVV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

EVV attack 1.03 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
41%
level
26%
EVV scores more
33%

GVV Unitas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: GVV Unitas 3–0 EVV

GVV Unitas beat EVV 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.