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GVV Unitas vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
DEM
DEM
12/10/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 18Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

GVV Unitas39%
×Draw25%
DEM35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.42
DEM
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 48 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
DEM
1.23

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
DEM
1.52

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
65%
GVV Unitas or DEM
75%
Draw or DEM
61%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
18%
DEM wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
76%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
41%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
17%
DEM 1+ goals
74%
DEM 2+ goals
39%
DEM 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
52%
DEM (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

DEM attack 1.23 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
39%
level
25%
DEM scores more
35%

GVV Unitas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GVV Unitas 1 – 1 DEM

GVV Unitas and DEM drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.