Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GVV Unitas vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
11/27/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 16Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

GVV Unitas52%
×Draw22%
Baronie26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.94
Baronie
1.33

GVV Unitas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 34 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
Baronie
2.56

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
74%
GVV Unitas or Baronie
78%
Draw or Baronie
48%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
29%
Baronie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
86%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
58%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
30%
Baronie 1+ goals
74%
Baronie 2+ goals
38%
Baronie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
66%
Baronie (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.94

Baronie attack 1.21 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
52%
level
22%
Baronie scores more
26%

GVV Unitas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: GVV Unitas 0–0 Baronie

GVV Unitas and Baronie drew 0-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.