Güzide Gebzespor 0–1 Somaspor: Result & Stats

Güzide Gebzespor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Somaspor

O. Pektas 45'

1/10/2026

League #205 · Kırmızı - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Güzide Gebzespor50%

×Draw31%

Somaspor20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Güzide GebzesporExpected goals in this matchSomaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.63

Güzide Gebzespor

1.19

Somaspor

0.63

Güzide Gebzespor creates 89% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

1.71

creates per match

0.33

0.92

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Güzide Gebzespor

1.71

Somaspor

0.33

allows per match

Güzide Gebzespor

0.92

Somaspor

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Somaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güzide Gebzespor ↓

Somaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Güzide Gebzespor or draw

80%

Güzide Gebzespor or Somaspor

69%

Draw or Somaspor

50%

Winning margin

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+

22%

Somaspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals

70%

Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals

33%

Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals

12%

Somaspor 1+ goals

47%

Somaspor 2+ goals

13%

Somaspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)

72%

Somaspor (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güzide Gebzespor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

Somaspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.71 + Somaspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Somaspor attack 0.33 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Güzide Gebzespor scores more

50%

level

31%

Somaspor scores more

20%

Güzide Gebzespor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

O. Pektas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff