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Güzide Gebzespor vs Erbaaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Erbaaspor
Erbaaspor
9/28/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundDerince Belediyespor Doğal Çim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Güzide Gebzespor59%
×Draw21%
Erbaaspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güzide Gebzespor
2.04
Erbaaspor
1.11

Güzide Gebzespor creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Güzide Gebzespor
2.20
Erbaaspor
1.22

allows per match

Güzide Gebzespor
1.00
Erbaaspor
1.89

finishing

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par
Erbaaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güzide Gebzespor ↓

Erbaaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Güzide Gebzespor or draw
80%
Güzide Gebzespor or Erbaaspor
79%
Draw or Erbaaspor
41%

Winning margin

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
35%
Erbaaspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
87%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
60%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
33%
Erbaaspor 1+ goals
67%
Erbaaspor 2+ goals
30%
Erbaaspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
74%
Erbaaspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güzide Gebzespor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Erbaaspor away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güzide Gebzespor attack 2.20 + Erbaaspor defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.04

Erbaaspor attack 1.22 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Güzide Gebzespor scores more
59%
level
21%
Erbaaspor scores more
20%

Güzide Gebzespor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Güzide Gebzespor 2–1 Erbaaspor

Güzide Gebzespor beat Erbaaspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Derince Belediyespor Doğal Çim Stadyumu in Derince.