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Güzide Gebzespor vs Amasyaspor 1968 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amasyaspor 1968
Amasyaspor 1968
9/29/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundDerince Belediyespor Doğal Çim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Güzide Gebzespor68%
×Draw19%
Amasyaspor 196812%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güzide Gebzespor
2.10
Amasyaspor 1968
0.75

Güzide Gebzespor creates 180% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Güzide Gebzespor
2.20
Amasyaspor 1968
0.50

allows per match

Güzide Gebzespor
1.00
Amasyaspor 1968
2.00

finishing

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par
Amasyaspor 1968+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güzide Gebzespor ↓

Amasyaspor 1968 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Güzide Gebzespor or draw
88%
Güzide Gebzespor or Amasyaspor 1968
81%
Draw or Amasyaspor 1968
32%

Winning margin

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
44%
Amasyaspor 1968 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
88%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
62%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
35%
Amasyaspor 1968 1+ goals
53%
Amasyaspor 1968 2+ goals
17%
Amasyaspor 1968 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
85%
Amasyaspor 1968 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güzide Gebzespor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Amasyaspor 1968 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güzide Gebzespor attack 2.20 + Amasyaspor 1968 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Amasyaspor 1968 attack 0.50 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Güzide Gebzespor scores more
68%
level
19%
Amasyaspor 1968 scores more
12%

Güzide Gebzespor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Güzide Gebzespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Güzide Gebzespor 0–1 Amasyaspor 1968

Amasyaspor 1968 beat Güzide Gebzespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 29, 2022.

The match was played at Derince Belediyespor Doğal Çim Stadyumu in Derince.