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Gute vs Vasalund — Svenska Cupen 2019

Gute
Gute
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vasalund
Vasalund
6/25/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundGutavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gute19%
×Draw18%
Vasalund63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gute
1.30
Vasalund
2.48

Vasalund creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gute
1.00
Vasalund
1.20

allows per match

Gute
3.75
Vasalund
1.60

finishing

Gute+0.00on par
Vasalund+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gute ↓

Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gute or draw
37%
Gute or Vasalund
82%
Draw or Vasalund
81%

Winning margin

Gute wins by 2+
8%
Vasalund wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Gute 1+ goals
73%
Gute 2+ goals
37%
Gute 3+ goals
14%
Vasalund 1+ goals
92%
Vasalund 2+ goals
70%
Vasalund 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Gute (draw refunded)
23%
Vasalund (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gute at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Vasalund away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gute attack 1.00 + Vasalund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vasalund attack 1.20 + Gute defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gute scores more
19%
level
18%
Vasalund scores more
63%

Vasalund at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gute vs Vasalund

Gute and Vasalund drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on June 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gutavallen in Gotland.