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Gute vs Stocksund — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Gute
Gute
FT
1 – 3
Stocksund
Stocksund
11/27/2021Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 6Säve konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Gute26%
×Draw20%
Stocksund55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gute
1.57
Stocksund
2.34

Stocksund creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 47 away

creates per match

Gute
1.54
Stocksund
3.00

allows per match

Gute
1.69
Stocksund
1.60

finishing

Gute+0.00on par
Stocksund+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gute ↓

Stocksund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Gute or draw
45%
Gute or Stocksund
80%
Draw or Stocksund
74%

Winning margin

Gute wins by 2+
12%
Stocksund wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Gute 1+ goals
79%
Gute 2+ goals
46%
Gute 3+ goals
21%
Stocksund 1+ goals
90%
Stocksund 2+ goals
67%
Stocksund 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Gute (draw refunded)
32%
Stocksund (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gute at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 85 matches

Stocksund away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gute attack 1.54 + Stocksund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Stocksund attack 3.00 + Gute defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gute scores more
26%
level
20%
Stocksund scores more
55%

Stocksund at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stocksund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Gute 1–3 Stocksund

Stocksund beat Gute 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Säve konstgräs in Visby.