Gute 1–2 IFK Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Gute

FT

1 – 2

IFK Eskilstuna

6/28/2020

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 2Gutavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gute47%

×Draw23%

IFK Eskilstuna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuteExpected goals in this matchIFK Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.43

Gute

1.85

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

Gute creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

1.29

creates per match

1.43

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Gute

1.29

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

allows per match

Gute

1.43

IFK Eskilstuna

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gute+0.00on par

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gute ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Gute or draw

70%

Gute or IFK Eskilstuna

77%

Draw or IFK Eskilstuna

53%

Winning margin

Gute wins by 2+

26%

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gute 1+ goals

84%

Gute 2+ goals

55%

Gute 3+ goals

28%

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

76%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

42%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gute (draw refunded)

61%

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gute at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gute attack 1.29 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.85

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Gute defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gute scores more

47%

level

23%

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

30%

Gute at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff