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Güssing vs Kohfidisch — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Güssing
Güssing
CANC
15:30
Kohfidisch
Kohfidisch
5/30/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 28Stadion Güssing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Güssing38%
×Draw23%
Kohfidisch39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güssing
1.69
Kohfidisch
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 87 away

creates per match

Güssing
1.24
Kohfidisch
1.24

allows per match

Güssing
2.22
Kohfidisch
2.15

finishing

Güssing+0.00on par
Kohfidisch+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güssing ↓

Kohfidisch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Güssing or draw
61%
Güssing or Kohfidisch
77%
Draw or Kohfidisch
62%

Winning margin

Güssing wins by 2+
19%
Kohfidisch wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Güssing 1+ goals
82%
Güssing 2+ goals
50%
Güssing 3+ goals
24%
Kohfidisch 1+ goals
82%
Kohfidisch 2+ goals
52%
Kohfidisch 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Güssing (draw refunded)
49%
Kohfidisch (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güssing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.22 · 41 matches

Kohfidisch away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güssing attack 1.24 + Kohfidisch defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kohfidisch attack 1.24 + Güssing defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Güssing scores more
38%
level
23%
Kohfidisch scores more
39%

Kohfidisch at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kohfidisch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Güssing host Kohfidisch

May 30, 2020: Güssing take on Kohfidisch in Landesliga - Burgenland. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Güssing host Kohfidisch at Stadion Güssing.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.