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Güssing vs Bad Sauerbrunn — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Güssing
Güssing
FT
1 – 1
Bad Sauerbrunn
Bad Sauerbrunn
6/4/2022Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 29VULCOLOR-Stadion Güssing

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Güssing29%
×Draw22%
Bad Sauerbrunn49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güssing
1.40
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.89

Bad Sauerbrunn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 85 away

creates per match

Güssing
1.24
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.55

allows per match

Güssing
2.22
Bad Sauerbrunn
1.56

finishing

Güssing+0.00on par
Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güssing ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Güssing or draw
51%
Güssing or Bad Sauerbrunn
78%
Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn
71%

Winning margin

Güssing wins by 2+
13%
Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Güssing 1+ goals
75%
Güssing 2+ goals
41%
Güssing 3+ goals
17%
Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals
85%
Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals
56%
Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Güssing (draw refunded)
37%
Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güssing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.22 · 41 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güssing attack 1.24 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.55 + Güssing defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Güssing scores more
29%
level
22%
Bad Sauerbrunn scores more
49%

Bad Sauerbrunn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bad Sauerbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Güssing vs Bad Sauerbrunn

Güssing and Bad Sauerbrunn drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at VULCOLOR-Stadion Güssing in Güssing.