Gusii 1–1 Zoo Kericho: Result & Stats

Gusii

FT

1 – 1

Zoo Kericho

6/12/2022

Super League · Round 30Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gusii41%

×Draw25%

Zoo Kericho34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GusiiExpected goals in this matchZoo Kericho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.38

Gusii

1.55

Zoo Kericho

1.38

Gusii creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

1.64

1.13

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gusii

1.46

Zoo Kericho

1.64

allows per match

Gusii

1.13

Zoo Kericho

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Zoo Kericho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gusii or draw

66%

Gusii or Zoo Kericho

75%

Draw or Zoo Kericho

59%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+

21%

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals

79%

Gusii 2+ goals

46%

Gusii 3+ goals

20%

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

75%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

40%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)

55%

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gusii scores more

41%

level

25%

Zoo Kericho scores more

34%

Gusii at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff