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Gusii vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
5/1/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gusii53%
×Draw25%
Vihiga United FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.62
Vihiga United FC
0.96

Gusii creates 69% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
78%
Gusii or Vihiga United FC
75%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
47%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
28%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
80%
Gusii 2+ goals
48%
Gusii 3+ goals
22%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
62%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
70%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.62

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gusii scores more
53%
level
25%
Vihiga United FC scores more
22%

Gusii at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Gusii 5–2 Vihiga United FC

Gusii beat Vihiga United FC 5-2 in Super League on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Gusii Stadium in Kisii.