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Gusii vs Silibwet — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Silibwet
Silibwet
11/18/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Cardinal Otunga High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gusii62%
×Draw22%
Silibwet17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.92
Silibwet
0.88

Gusii creates 118% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 54 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Silibwet
0.63

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Silibwet
2.37

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Silibwet+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Silibwet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
83%
Gusii or Silibwet
78%
Draw or Silibwet
38%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
37%
Silibwet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
85%
Gusii 2+ goals
57%
Gusii 3+ goals
30%
Silibwet 1+ goals
59%
Silibwet 2+ goals
22%
Silibwet 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
79%
Silibwet (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Silibwet away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Silibwet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.92

Silibwet attack 0.63 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gusii scores more
62%
level
22%
Silibwet scores more
17%

Gusii at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gusii vs Silibwet

Gusii beat Silibwet 2-1 in Super League on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Cardinal Otunga High School in Mosocho.