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Gusii vs Rainbow — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rainbow
Rainbow
4/27/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Cardinal Otunga High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gusii47%
×Draw27%
Rainbow26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.44
Rainbow
1.01

Gusii creates 43% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Rainbow
0.89

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Rainbow
1.42

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Rainbow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Rainbow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
74%
Gusii or Rainbow
73%
Draw or Rainbow
53%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
23%
Rainbow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
76%
Gusii 2+ goals
42%
Gusii 3+ goals
18%
Rainbow 1+ goals
64%
Rainbow 2+ goals
27%
Rainbow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
64%
Rainbow (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Rainbow away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Rainbow defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rainbow attack 0.89 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gusii scores more
47%
level
27%
Rainbow scores more
26%

Gusii at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gusii vs Rainbow

Rainbow beat Gusii 2-1 in Super League on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Cardinal Otunga High School in Mosocho.