Gusii 2–1 Mulembe United: Result & Stats

Gusii

FT

2 – 1

Mulembe United

5/12/2024

Super League · Round 31Cardinal Otunga High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gusii50%

×Draw26%

Mulembe United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GusiiExpected goals in this matchMulembe United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.95

Gusii

1.51

Mulembe United

0.95

Gusii creates 59% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

1.46

creates per match

0.78

1.13

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Gusii

1.46

Mulembe United

0.78

allows per match

Gusii

1.13

Mulembe United

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par

Mulembe United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Mulembe United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gusii or draw

76%

Gusii or Mulembe United

74%

Draw or Mulembe United

50%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+

26%

Mulembe United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals

78%

Gusii 2+ goals

44%

Gusii 3+ goals

19%

Mulembe United 1+ goals

61%

Mulembe United 2+ goals

25%

Mulembe United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)

68%

Mulembe United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Mulembe United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Mulembe United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Mulembe United attack 0.78 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gusii scores more

50%

level

26%

Mulembe United scores more

24%

Gusii at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff