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Gusii vs Muhoroni Youth — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
2 – 2
Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
1/25/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gusii47%
×Draw27%
Muhoroni Youth26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.42
Muhoroni Youth
0.98

Gusii creates 45% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Muhoroni Youth
0.84

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Muhoroni Youth
1.38

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Muhoroni Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
74%
Gusii or Muhoroni Youth
73%
Draw or Muhoroni Youth
53%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
23%
Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
76%
Gusii 2+ goals
41%
Gusii 3+ goals
17%
Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
62%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
26%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
64%
Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Muhoroni Youth away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.84 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gusii scores more
47%
level
27%
Muhoroni Youth scores more
26%

Gusii at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gusii vs Muhoroni Youth

Gusii and Muhoroni Youth drew 2-2 in Super League on January 25, 2022.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.