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Gusii vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Gusii
Gusii
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
3/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gusii51%
×Draw26%
Mombasa Elite23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gusii
1.54
Mombasa Elite
0.95

Gusii creates 62% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gusii
1.46
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Gusii
1.13
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gusii or draw
77%
Gusii or Mombasa Elite
74%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
49%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+
26%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals
79%
Gusii 2+ goals
45%
Gusii 3+ goals
20%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
61%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
25%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)
69%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gusii scores more
51%
level
26%
Mombasa Elite scores more
23%

Gusii at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Gusii 0–1 Mombasa Elite

Mombasa Elite beat Gusii 1-0 in Super League on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Gusii Stadium in Kisii.