Gusii 0–1 Darajani Gogo: Result & Stats

Gusii

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Darajani Gogo

3/2/2024

Super League · Round 21Cardinal Otunga High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gusii46%

×Draw27%

Darajani Gogo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GusiiExpected goals in this matchDarajani Gogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.97

Gusii

1.37

Darajani Gogo

0.97

Gusii creates 41% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

1.46

creates per match

0.82

1.13

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Gusii

1.46

Darajani Gogo

0.82

allows per match

Gusii

1.13

Darajani Gogo

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Darajani Gogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gusii or draw

73%

Gusii or Darajani Gogo

73%

Draw or Darajani Gogo

54%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+

22%

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals

75%

Gusii 2+ goals

40%

Gusii 3+ goals

16%

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals

62%

Darajani Gogo 2+ goals

25%

Darajani Gogo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)

63%

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gusii scores more

46%

level

27%

Darajani Gogo scores more

27%

Gusii at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff