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Gurupi vs União Carmolandense — League #631 2026

Gurupi
Gurupi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
União Carmolandense
União Carmolandense
Unknown 58', 6'
Unknown 45'
1/31/2026League #631League #631 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gurupi28%
×Draw28%
União Carmolandense44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurupi
1.00
União Carmolandense
1.33

União Carmolandense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gurupi
1.00
União Carmolandense
1.33

allows per match

Gurupi
1.33
União Carmolandense
1.00

finishing

Gurupi+0.00on par
União Carmolandense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurupi ↓

União Carmolandense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gurupi or draw
56%
Gurupi or União Carmolandense
72%
Draw or União Carmolandense
72%

Winning margin

Gurupi wins by 2+
10%
União Carmolandense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gurupi 1+ goals
63%
Gurupi 2+ goals
26%
Gurupi 3+ goals
8%
União Carmolandense 1+ goals
74%
União Carmolandense 2+ goals
38%
União Carmolandense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gurupi (draw refunded)
39%
União Carmolandense (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurupi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

União Carmolandense away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurupi attack 1.00 + União Carmolandense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

União Carmolandense attack 1.33 + Gurupi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gurupi scores more
28%
level
28%
União Carmolandense scores more
44%

União Carmolandense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
45'
58'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #631: Gurupi 2–1 União Carmolandense

Gurupi beat União Carmolandense 2-1 in League #631 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: ? (6', 45', 58').