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Gurten vs Wildon — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wildon
Wildon
3/1/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 16Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gurten70%
×Draw18%
Wildon12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
2.23
Wildon
0.77

Gurten creates 190% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
Wildon
0.73

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
Wildon
2.73

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Wildon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Wildon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
88%
Gurten or Wildon
82%
Draw or Wildon
30%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
46%
Wildon wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
89%
Gurten 2+ goals
65%
Gurten 3+ goals
38%
Wildon 1+ goals
54%
Wildon 2+ goals
18%
Wildon 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
86%
Wildon (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Wildon away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Wildon defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.23

Wildon attack 0.73 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gurten scores more
70%
level
18%
Wildon scores more
12%

Gurten at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gurten vs Wildon

Gurten beat Wildon 1-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.