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Gurten vs Spittal — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
CANC
15:00
Spittal
Spittal
5/16/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 27Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gurten63%
×Draw21%
Spittal16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.99
Spittal
0.88

Gurten creates 126% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 22 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.75
Spittal
0.91

allows per match

Gurten
0.85
Spittal
2.23

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Spittal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Spittal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
84%
Gurten or Spittal
79%
Draw or Spittal
37%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
38%
Spittal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
86%
Gurten 2+ goals
59%
Gurten 3+ goals
32%
Spittal 1+ goals
59%
Spittal 2+ goals
22%
Spittal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
80%
Spittal (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Spittal away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.75 + Spittal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.99

Spittal attack 0.91 + Gurten defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gurten scores more
63%
level
21%
Spittal scores more
16%

Gurten at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gurten host Spittal

May 16, 2021: Gurten take on Spittal in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gurten host Spittal at Park21-Arena Gurten.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.