Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gurten vs SK Vorwarts Steyr — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
10/21/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 13Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gurten58%
×Draw23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.77
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.90

Gurten creates 97% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.97

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

SK Vorwarts Steyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
81%
Gurten or SK Vorwarts Steyr
77%
Draw or SK Vorwarts Steyr
42%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
33%
SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
83%
Gurten 2+ goals
53%
Gurten 3+ goals
26%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
59%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
75%
SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 0.97 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gurten scores more
58%
level
23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
19%

Gurten at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gurten vs SK Vorwarts Steyr

Gurten and SK Vorwarts Steyr drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.