Gurten 8–1 Salzburger AK: Result & Stats

Gurten

8 – 1

Salzburger AK

7/31/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gurten62%

×Draw16%

Salzburger AK23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchSalzburger AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

2.25

Gurten

3.63

Salzburger AK

2.25

Gurten creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

4.00

creates per match

1.75

2.75

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Gurten

4.00

Salzburger AK

1.75

allows per match

Gurten

2.75

Salzburger AK

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Salzburger AK →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–15%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

77%

Gurten or Salzburger AK

84%

Draw or Salzburger AK

38%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

43%

Salzburger AK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

97%

Gurten 2+ goals

87%

Gurten 3+ goals

68%

Salzburger AK 1+ goals

89%

Salzburger AK 2+ goals

65%

Salzburger AK 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

73%

Salzburger AK (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 4.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Salzburger AK away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 4.00 + Salzburger AK defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.63

Salzburger AK attack 1.75 + Gurten defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gurten scores more

62%

level

16%

Salzburger AK scores more

23%

Gurten at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff