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Gurten vs Hertha — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hertha
Hertha
3/5/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 18Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Gurten47%
×Draw24%
Hertha29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.69
Hertha
1.29

Gurten creates 31% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 61 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
Hertha
1.77

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
Hertha
1.64

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
71%
Gurten or Hertha
76%
Draw or Hertha
53%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
25%
Hertha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
82%
Gurten 2+ goals
50%
Gurten 3+ goals
24%
Hertha 1+ goals
72%
Hertha 2+ goals
37%
Hertha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
61%
Hertha (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hertha attack 1.77 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gurten scores more
47%
level
24%
Hertha scores more
29%

Gurten at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gurten 2–0 Hertha

Gurten beat Hertha 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.